El Niño 2026-2027

2023 storms swelled the Cosumnes River and flooded properties along Green Rd. in Wilton, located in Sacramento County, California. Florence Low / California Department of Water Resources.

What is El Niño?

El Niño refers to the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is an oceanic phenomenon. It is not a storm nor a series of storms. However, El Niño can affect atmospheric currents and increase the frequency and intensity of Pacific storms reaching California. The emerging El Niño event is strengthening in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. According to the National Weather Service, as of mid-September, there is a high likelihood (75% chance) that it will exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.

How Will El Niño Affect California’s Coast?

El Niño conditions can generate a triple threat for California’s coastal areas. Increased rainfall triggers landslides; powerful waves can accelerate erosion of beaches, sea cliffs, and bluffs, and cause coastal flooding. This year’s El Niño is especially strong due to several factors. The tropical Pacific is holding a tremendous amount of heat, with temperatures off California warmer than they have been in over 20 years. Forces that normally push cold water up from the deep along the coast (called coastal upwelling) and whisk warm surface water away from the shore (the eastern trade winds) have been severely weakened by El Niño conditions. In addition, subsurface heat waves (Kelvin waves) are trapped along the coast, raising baseline sea levels up 6-12 inches. These factors and others combine to elevate flood risks for coastal areas, potentially impacting public parks, beaches, critical infrastructure, ports, transportation routes, and homes.

How Is California Preparing?

Governor Newsom has proclaimed a state of emergency to bolster statewide El Niño preparedness. The state of emergency helps California move faster by directing state agencies to help communities protect vulnerable areas ahead of the storm season. State and local partners are working together to reduce flood and landslide risks, prepare roads and critical infrastructure, and stage emergency supplies. State environmental and natural resources agencies will support local efforts to prepare for flooding, landslides, and debris flows, by fast-tracking permitting and identifying other ways to cut red tape.

What Can You Do to Prepare?

Before storms arrive, coastal residents and communities are encouraged to:

  • Sign up for alerts. Get local emergency alerts and follow trusted sources.
  • Be aware of erosion risks, particularly if your property is near a beach, bluff, or other vulnerable coastal area.
  • Review the preparation suggestions for areas that may be vulnerable to flooding, waves, or erosion.
  • Inspect your property, especially areas exposed to flooding, waves, or erosion, and structures like docks, buoys, seawalls, revetments, and cave fills. Look for signs of lost material, obstructed drainage, etc. Inspect blufftops and slopes for instability or potential drainage issues.
  • Address potential sources of damage before severe weather arrives. Conduct necessary maintenance and repair work now to reduce the likelihood of storm-induced damage. Clear beach and shore-facing areas of unsecured objects (e.g. furniture) that may become debris or safety hazards.
  • Prepare for heavy rainfall and flooding, including checking drainage and areas where water could collect. Clear storm drains and roof gutters. Temporary and removable protection (such as sandbags, sand berms, and beach nourishment) may be considered if there is a need for extraordinary protection.

Preparation or response activities on lands adjacent to waterways are very likely to require authorization from the State Lands Commission. Certain activities may already be authorized by a lease. Please contact Commission staff with any questions regarding your lease or emergency actions.